Jakarta Governor Basuki “Ahok” Tjahaja Purnama will have to work hard to win the February election, with his approval rating nosediving from nearly 60 percent in March to around 30 percent in October, according to a recent survey.
The survey, released by the Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI), showed that the surprise nominations of former culture and education minister Anies Baswedan and Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono, the eldest son of former president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, were game changers.
A few months ago, the governor was virtually the only competitive candidate in the race, with his rivals — singer-songwriter Ahmad Dhani, City Council deputy speaker Lulung Lunggana and former law and human rights minister Yusril Ihza Mahendra — seen as too unpopular among voters to beat Ahok.
The governor, who replaced Joko “Jokowi” Widodo in 2014 after the latter was elected president, remains the candidate to beat, the LSI said, but his standing is now in striking distance for his competitors.
The governor was favored by 31.4 percent of the 440 respondents of the survey, which was held from Sept. 28 to Oct. 2. His rivals, Anies and Agus, trailed with 21.1 and 19.3 percent, respectively.
“This could be a problem for Ahok. In order to win, an incumbent should have an electability margin of at least 20 percent above the nearest candidate,” LSI researcher Adjie Alfaraby said.
It is worth noting that 28.2 percent of the respondents were undecided. It would be harder for Ahok to get their votes, Adjie said, as he had begun preparing for the race much earlier than other hopefuls who had just announced their gubernatorial bids.
The survey found that 97 percent of respondents knew about Ahok, while only 78 percent and 74.5 percent knew about Agus and Anies, respectively.
The LSI noted that Ahok’s approval rating was declining. In March, his rating was at 59.3 percent. It then dropped to 49.1 percent in July, before going down further to 31.4 percent in October.
“If Anies and Agus were not taking part in the election, I am sure that [Ahok’s approval rating] would not plunge as it has,” Adjie said.
Ahok, however, was unfazed by the survey results, telling reporters at City Hall: “Don’t ask me about the election. Let’s just talk about working [on developing the city].”
The former Belitung regent has displayed confidence about his chances in the election, often telling people not to vote for him if they do not think he is good enough.
He has also said he does not need to campaign and will instead focus on doing his job. He has challenged the 2016 Regional Elections Law to make it legal for incumbent candidates to work during the official campaign period.
Other than the emergence of Anies and Agus as worthy rivals, three other factors that have contributed to Ahok’s declining rating are his ruthless eviction policy, his arrogance and his race and religion, according to the LSI’s findings.
However, most Muslims (27.7 percent) still support Ahok. Anies was favored by 22.8 percent of Muslim respondents, followed by Agus with 20.6 percent. Ahok’s approval rating is even higher among non-Muslim respondents. A total of 83.3 percent preferred Ahok compared to only 2.8 percent who wanted Anies and 3.2 percent for Agus.
The LSI survey results were similar to another survey released last month by Poltracking Indonesia.
Poltracking said that while Ahok never reached more than 50 percent in each possible scenario, his approval rating was only slightly higher than that of Anies when the two were compared. “This could be a serious threat for Ahok,” Poltracking Indonesia executive director Hanta Yuda said at the time. Regional election committees have reminded the incumbents to take leave for their reelection campaign despite the court petition filed to annul this requirement.
The Central Java Election Commission (KPUD Central Java) has asked all incumbent candidates running in the 2017 regional elections to schedule leave before the campaign period starts on Oct. 28.
KPUD Central Java head Joko Purnomo said that this action was needed because when they registered themselves for the 2017 elections, they submitted statements declaring that they would take leave during the campaign period.
“In order to make sure everything runs smoothly, we have ask the candidates to submit letters of leave in advance,” Joko said.
Incumbents are required to leave their offices before the election campaign starts in order to prevent them from abusing the power they have over local government.
An amendment to the Regional Election Law last year requires incumbents to take leave for three and a half months, which could potentially hinder administrative activities, such as planning the annual budget.
Seven cities and regencies are planning for regional elections next February. From the 17 candidate pairs competing in the elections, five are incumbents.
The incumbent candidates come from Cilacap, Banjarnegara, Brebes, Pati and Jepara. The other two regions in the elections are Salatiga and Batang.
Joko said that once candidates were officially registered to run in the election, incumbent candidates had to take leave during the campaign period from Oct. 28 to Feb. 11.
Previously, Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo warned regional heads running for reelection not to propose a sudden leave. “If leaves are planned in advance, we will be able to prepare for acting regional heads as early as possible. Otherwise, this could cause trouble,” Ganjar said.
In Kupang, East Nusa Tenggara (NTT), incumbent candidate Jonas Salean seeks reelection as mayor and proposed his leave on Sept. 19, before he registered for the candidacy at KPUD Kupang.
“I sent the letter proposing leave to KPUD Kupang. I will be able to campaign without being burdened by being an incumbent candidate,” Jonas told reporters on Tuesday.
Jonas and his running mate Nikolaus Fransiskus have been nominated by a coalition led by the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P).
Jonas said he would wait for the ruling from the Constitutional Court (MK) regarding judicial review on election law proposed by Jakarta Governor Basuki “Ahok” Tjahaja Purnama, which challenges the article obliging incumbents to take leave.
“If the judicial review is approved by the MK then I will not need to take leave for the campaign,” he said.
KPUD Kupang spokesperson Danny Ratu confirmed that Jonas sent the proposal for leave in mid September. “We have to receive the leave permit a day before the campaign period starts,” Danny said.
Political observer Ahmad Atang of Kupang Muhammadiyah University said that the regulation on the obligation to take leave for incumbent candidates provides fairness to other candidates.
He said incumbent candidates have authoritative privileges to switch officers, create programs and spend funds. They can make it look like these decisions are in the best interest of the people, but they could just be acting on their own behalf.
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